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Petrochemical machinery: Benefit from increased investment in the entire industry chain of natural gas development
2018-07-06
Covered for the first time and given an overweight rating. Combining the judgment that oil prices will enter the mid-to-high range of US$70-80/barrel in the next 2-3 years and that investment in natural gas infrastructure will increase every year, we estimate that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders from 2018 to 2020 will be 1.21/2.10/275 million yuan respectively, and EPS will be respectively It is 0.20/0.35/0.46 yuan. Give the industry average PB in 2019 3.3 times, corresponding to a target price of 11.52 yuan.
The company has benefited from the increase in investment in the entire industry chain of natural gas development and has obvious competitive advantages. Subsidiaries No. 4 Machinery Co., Ltd., No. 4 Machine Sewa, and No. 3 Machinery Branch are leading companies in fracturing equipment, complete sets of cementing and fracturing equipment, and compressor equipment; Jiangzuan has a monopoly advantage in the field of oil drill bits, and Shashi Steel Pipe Branch The company is the only professional manufacturer of oil and gas pipelines in the group. The company's business covers the entire natural gas development industry chain. There is high certainty about the future growth of industry infrastructure and oil and gas development investment, and the company's business will pick up across the board.
China has a large space for increasing unconventional oil and gas production, and there is new demand for fracturing equipment. In 2017, China's shale gas production was 9 billion cubic meters. According to the "Shale Gas Development Plan (2016-2020)" issued by the National Energy Administration, the goal of shale gas production of 30 billion cubic meters will be achieved in 2020, and there is considerable room for increased production. PetroChina alone still needs to drill more than 700 wells before 2020, and we expect it will bring demand for more than 120 new pressurized fracturing trucks.
my country's natural gas infrastructure investment has high certainty, and future gas storage and long-distance natural gas pipelines will be the focus of investment and construction. Our natural gas infrastructure still lags far behind that of developed countries. PetroChina is expected to invest 21 billion yuan in building gas storage facilities in the Sichuan and Chongqing regions, while investment in oil and gas pipeline networks during the 13th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 910 billion yuan. Equipment, steel pipe and engineering service providers will benefit from the improved industry prosperity.
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